Docker Inc. Analysis 2

Who could be the potential buyers if the price tag is $1.8B or more?

Acquisition Scenario 1: Price tag ≥ $1.8B

This is the second part of our Docker Inc. analysis (see part one). Although the company seems to be in fund raising mode, there are reasonable grounds to believe that an M&A route is on the table given that the company is not growing fast enough to be an attractive IPO candidate. Hence, we calculated the following predictions using our proprietary M&A predictor function to compute the probabilities of what companies may acquire Docker Inc. This was based on a number of factors including; the last private valuation, Intellectual Property and engineering talent.

According to our analysis, Microsoft is the clear favorite if the price tag is greater than or equal to $1.8B. It’s worth mentioning that in 2016 there were rumours that Microsoft did bid around $4B for Docker, however this was back when the company was at its hottest point, consequently, given the current circumstances, a comparable offer will most likely be accepted by Docker’s management and investors!

Also, since Satya Nadella took over as CEO, Microsoft seems to have recognized the importance of building trust and partnerships with the open source developer communities. Containers are a particular area of interest for Microsoft Azure, in fact Docker Inc announced a strategic commercial partnership with Microsoft back in 2016.

Docker Announces Commercial Partnership with Microsoft to Double Container Market by Extending Docker Engine to Windows Server. With industry analysts declaring Windows Server with more than 60% of the x86 server market, and citing Microsoft Azure as the fastest-growing public cloud, it comes as no surprise that Microsoft, even at its current scale, is further extending its leadership as a strategic, trusted partner to enterprise IT.

It is this industry leadership that catalyzed our technical collaboration in the Docker open source project back in October 2014, to jointly bring the agility, portability, and security benefits of the Docker platform to Windows Server.  After two years of joint engineering, we are excited to unveil a new, commercial partnership to extend these benefits for both Windows developers targeting Windows Server and enterprise IT professionals.

Scott Johnston - CPO at Docker

Next week we will cover a second scenario where the acquisition price tag is less than $1.8B. In this scenario we have quite few potential buyers including, IBM (via Red Hat), Oracle, VMware and Rackspace. We’re monitoring key executives and employees at these companies in order to compute the respective probabilities of acquiring Docker.

Did you know as a paid enterprise customer you can request our team to perform M&A analysis on any VC backed company?

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