Our prediction on Casper's IPO seems correct?
Learn why our January prediction on Casper's IPO may be correct!
|Kähler VC.X||Feb 7|
In our post entitled ‘The Kolmogorov IPO Score for Casper Sleep Inc’, we predicted that Casper had a 13% probability of a successful IPO! Given that Casper’s stock on its first day trading closed only ~ 13% up from its already reduced valuation, all signals indicate that our prediction may be correct. Now, to be fair to Casper, as you may recall, we don’t consider a first-day stock surge of a company as a 'success’ - instead, the ability of the company to maintain a strong stock performance until the lockup period expires is what we consider to be a successful IPO from the perspective of existing shareholders i.e. VCs. Hence, even though Casper has had a bad first day of trading, technically our prediction can still be wrong if the lockup period expires and Casper has managed to shift investor sentiment positively!
Also, as mentioned previously, Casper was actually not part of our pre-selection list of 246 technology-driven unicorns that we’re closely monitoring. However, we decided to take on a challenge of applying our investor sentiment analysis to Casper in order to stress-test our mathematical models against companies where we have limited profiling data.
Finally, we don’t wish Casper ill will, nor do we wish to diminish the efforts of the; management, employees and investors who have worked extremely hard to bring the company to this stage as a public company.
Prediction Update (6th of Feb 2020)
As a quick refresher to our new readers, we theorize that our Kolmogorov IPO Score (see our introduction post) is a proxy answer to the chances of an IPO succeeding i.e. the Kolmogorov IPO Score corresponds to the probability of an IPO being successful.
The Kolmogorov IPO Score for Casper as of Feb 6th 2020, based on signals gathered over the past few hours, it appears that after the first day of trading Casper score is 3% - down from our previous prediction of a 13% probability of success. So according to our updated prediction, Casper has a 3% probability of success after the lockup period expires, which is certainly not a positive outlook if our predictions are correct. It’s still early days yet.
Of course, it is possible this prediction will change to a more positive outlook as we capture more data over the coming days and weeks about the institutional investors holding the stocks and other corporate data now that the company is public. Subscribers to our Pre-IPO Analyzer Platform will get daily prediction updates for Casper plus any new unicorn filling to go public.
Disclaimer: Any opinions, newsletters, research, analyses, prices, projections or other information offered by Kähler AI is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. Kähler AI will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. ZAIKU GROUP LTD.