Our prediction update on the One Medical IPO
Check out our updated prediction after One Medical stock finished 57% up!
|Kähler VC.X||Jan 31|
In our popular post entitled ‘The Kolmogorov IPO Score for 1Life Healthcare, Inc (aka One Medical)’, we predicted that One Medical had a 24% probability of a successful IPO! Given that One Medical stock closed ~ 57% up, you may be tempted to conclude that our prediction was wrong. Well, not really, because as stated in our post, we don’t consider the first-day stock surge as 'success’ - instead, the ability of the company to maintain a strong stock performance until the lockup period expires is what we consider as being a successful IPO from the perspective of existing shareholders like VCs. This is very important as we have seen companies make stellar debuts, with their stocks skyrocketing on the first day of trading, only to see a couple of weeks later the stocks sinking to a record low just before the lockup period expires. Hence, even though One Medical stock closed ~ 57% up after the first trading day, our prediction can still come true when the lockup period expires! Of course, we don’t wish ill or diminish the efforts of the management, employees and investors who worked extremely hard to bring the company to this stage as a public company.
Finally, as mentioned previously, One Medical was actually not part of our pre-selection list of 246 technology-driven unicorns that we’re closely monitoring. However, we decided to take on a challenge of applying the investor sentiment analysis to stress-test our mathematical models against companies where we have limited profiling data such as with One Medical.
Prediction update (Jan 31st 2020)
As a quick refresher to our new readers, we theorize that our Kolmogorov IPO Score (see our introduction post) is a proxy answer to the chances of an IPO succeeding i.e. the Kolmogorov IPO Score corresponds to the probability of an IPO being successful.
The updated Kolmogorov IPO Score for One Medical as of the (Jan 31st 2020) after the trading day, based on signals gathered over the past few hours is 32% - up only 8% from our previous prediction of 24% probability! So according to our updated prediction, One Medical has a 32% probability of success after the lockup period expires, which is still not a positive outlook if our predictions are correct. It’s still early days yet.
Of course, it is possible this prediction will change to a more positive outlook as we capture more data over the coming days and weeks about the institutional investors holding the stocks and other corporate data now that the company is public. Subscribers to our Pre-IPO Analyzer Platform will get daily prediction updates for One Medical and Casper (see screenshot below) plus any new unicorn filling to go public.
Andreessen Horowitz & Kolmogorov IPO Scores
As a heads up on what’s coming next in terms of Pre-IPO analysis, we are currently tracking 37 growth stage enterprise companies mostly sourced from the Andreessen Horowitz’s website. Stripe was the only company we added that is not featured on Andreessen Howoritz’s enterprise portfolio section. These companies will be featured in our upcoming Kolmogorov IPO Score analysis dashboard that we’ll be sharing with our enterprise subscribers.
We picked Andreessen Horowitz because the firm is one of the most influential investors in Silicon Valley. In fact, our partial analysis suggests that where Andreessen Horowitz invests, other VCs tend to follow suit! Hence, by picking this firm, we are thereby covering other notable VC firms by proxy with common or similar portfolios. The 37 companies covered in our upcoming analysis include the following top 10 high profile startups:
The screenshot below is a sneak preview of our dashboard that we’ll be publishing to the subscribers of our enterprise plan over the coming days. Stripe is leading the charge currently with a Kolmogorov IPO Score of 79%! In an upcoming analysis entitled ‘Why Stripe shouldn't be tempted to sell for even $50Bn!’ we’ll be digging into Stripe and its growth potential as public company vs being acquired.
“The applications of probability theory can be put on a uniform basis. It is always a matter of consequences of hypotheses about the impossibility of reducing in one way or another the complexity of the descriptions of the objects in question. Naturally this approach to the matter does not prevent the development of probability theory as a branch of mathematics being a special case of general measure theory.
The concepts of information theory as applied to infinite sequences give rise to very interesting investigations, which, without being indispensable as a basis of probability theory, can acquire a certain value in investigation of the algorithmic side of mathematics as a whole.” Andrey Kolmogorov (1983).
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